Storm watch issued for St Vincent (SVG) as Bret approaches the island

Aug 30, 2023

St Vincent (SVG) are among several Caribbean islands now under storm watch as Tropical Storm Bret approaches the region.

The National Hurricane Center says watches have been issued St Vincent, Dominica and Barbados as of 5 p.m.

Martinique and St Lucia is now under a storm warning.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Local met office says given its speed, the system should pass SVG around Thursday evening into Friday.

Model guidance is indicating roughly 1 inch (25mm) by early Thursday night, and a further 2-3 inches (50mm-75mm) from Friday into Saturday. These showers can be accompanied by isolated thunderstorms. A flash flood watch may be issued during this period.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so while Bret approaches the Lesser Antilles. Weakening is anticipated to begin Thursday night or Friday after Bret passes the Lesser Antilles, and the system is likely to dissipate over the central Caribbean Sea by Saturday.

Aircraft data indicate that Bret is a little larger in size, and tropical-storm-force winds now extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center, especially to the north. NOAA buoy 41040 to the north of Bret recently reported a sustained wind of 43 mph (68 km/h) and a gust to 49 mph (79 km/h).

RAINFALL: Through Saturday, storm total rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches are possible across portions of the Lesser Antilles from Guadeloupe south to St. Vincent and the Grenadines, including Barbados. The heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding, especially across areas of higher terrain. Urban flooding is also possible.

Lee Yan is a journalist based in Cebu, Philippines. For the past 10 years, he has worked in the media and writes part-time for the St. Vincent Times.